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AZERLIA

AI Decision Support

AI demand forecasting and decision support for SMEs in India

AI decision support uses your own sales, stock, purchase and receivables history to answer questions an owner asks every week: what should we reorder, how much will we sell next month, which customers are likely to pay late, what happens to margin if we change price. It is for owners and COOs of firms with roughly 10–500 staff whose data in Tally, POS or ERP is already clean and complete enough to trust. The expected result is fewer stock-outs and dead stock, earlier warning on bad debt, and decisions made on numbers instead of memory. A pilot typically costs ₹4–10 lakh ($4,500–12,000) and takes 6–8 weeks. We only start this after your data is ready, which usually means a Discovery Sprint or a dashboard first.

₹4–10 lakh / $4,500–12,0006–8 weeksUpdated 14 October 2026

Who this is for

  • Distributors and retail chains deciding reorders by feel, with cash stuck in slow stock and gaps in fast stock.
  • Manufacturers planning production and raw-material purchases from last month's number and a guess.
  • Owners with receivables ageing who want to know which accounts to chase this week, not after they go bad.
  • Firms that already have a dashboard and now want it to say what to do next, not just what happened.
  • Businesses with a Kerala and a UAE operation that want one forecast across both, in rupees and dirhams.

What we build

  • Demand forecasts by item, branch and week or month, built from your sales history, seasonality and known events such as Onam or Ramadan.
  • Reorder suggestions that account for lead time, minimum order quantity, current stock and the forecast, shown as a list your purchase team can accept or edit.
  • Receivables risk flags: customers whose payment behaviour has changed, ranked for follow-up with the reason shown.
  • Scenario models: what if we raise prices on this range, open a branch, or drop a slow line; the model shows the expected effect on sales, margin and cash.
  • Margin leak detection: discounts, freight, returns or rework that are eating margin on specific customers or products.
  • Anomaly alerts: a sudden drop in a rep's sales, a supplier price jump, or a stock count that does not match the system.
  • Delivery in the places you already look: your dashboard, a morning WhatsApp or email summary, or a sheet for the purchase team.

Typical scope

A pilot usually covers one decision for one part of the business, most often reorder suggestions for the top-selling items in one branch or warehouse, or payment-risk flags for the receivables book. We start by testing the model on your past data and showing you the error honestly. If it is not better than what you do today, we stop there and you pay for the pilot work done, not the full build. This is not a black box and not a tool for messy data: every suggestion carries its reason, and the model is only as good as the entries in Tally or your ERP. If your sales history is short, lives on paper, or has items under several names, decision support is the wrong first step; a dashboard or Discovery Sprint will give you more for less, and we will say so.

What you receive

  • Working models running on your own data, hosted in your cloud account, refreshed on a schedule.
  • A back-test report showing how the forecast would have done against your real past months, so you know its error before you rely on it.
  • The suggestions and flags delivered into your dashboard, WhatsApp summary or sheets.
  • A plain-English note on how each model works, what it uses and what it ignores.
  • A data-quality fix list for anything that limited accuracy, with who should fix it.
  • A measurement sheet comparing the agreed success metric before and after the pilot.

AI Decision Support: questions owners ask

How much does AI decision support cost?

A pilot for one decision, such as reorder suggestions or receivables risk, typically costs ₹4–10 lakh ($4,500–12,000) and takes 6–8 weeks. If the back-test on your past data shows the model is not better than your current method, we stop early and you pay only for the work done. Keeping the models refreshed and adding new decisions can be covered by a retainer from ₹1 lakh/month ($1,200/month). A Discovery Sprint fee, if you did one, is credited.

Do we need to replace Tally or our ERP?

No. The models read from Tally, your POS or ERP on a schedule; nothing changes in how you bill or file GST. What you may need first is cleaner data inside those systems: one name per item, one name per customer, stock counts that match. A PwC India report (March 2026) lists data readiness among the main barriers to AI for MSMEs (https://www.pwc.in/unlocking-the-ai-edge-for-msmes.html), and that matches what we see in discovery. We check your data before quoting, not after.

How accurate will the forecast be?

We tell you before you depend on it. The first thing we build is a back-test: the model forecasts past months as if it did not know them, and we compare with what really happened. You see the error by item and by month. If the model does not beat your current method, we say so and stop. Accuracy is better for fast-moving items with steady history and worse for new or rare items, and the report marks which is which.

What data do we need to have ready?

Sales by item and date, stock levels, purchases with lead times, and receivables with payment dates, usually from Tally or your ERP, for enough past periods to show a pattern. Clean names matter more than volume: one item under three names will break a forecast. A Vi Business study (June 2026) found about one in four Indian MSMEs has integrated AI tools into operations, and that AI is adopted mainly for productivity and decision-making (https://www.voicendata.com/research/ai-adoption-gains-momentum-among-indian-msmes-vi-study-finds-12107383). The ones that get value are the ones whose data was ready first.

Do we need a data scientist on staff to use this?

No. The output is a list your purchase manager or accounts head can act on, with a reason next to each line, delivered where they already work. Your team's job is to accept, edit or reject the suggestions, and that feedback makes the model better. We leave a plain-English note on how each model works, and a retainer is available if you want us to keep tuning it.

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